Guyana's Emergence as a Regional Energy Powerhouse and its Expansion into the Global Oil Market
Guyana's offshore oil industry has seen substantial growth, with discoveries totalling over 11 billion barrels. Under ExxonMobil's leadership, the sector is progressing towards its seventh project. Since starting oil production in late 2019, Guyana's economy has tripled, marking a significant turnaround from its position in the early 1990s. In 2022, the country achieved a global high in real GDP growth at 62.3%, mainly due to escalating oil production. The government, benefiting from oil revenues, has been investing in development while maintaining stable economic fundamentals.
With some of the highest per capita oil reserves globally, Guyana expects continued rapid growth in oil production, with four new fields operational by 2028. This growth is supported by projected increases in non-oil GDP, fuelled by investments in human capital, reduced energy costs, and infrastructure improvements, including climate adaptation. Guyana’s real GDP is expected to grow by 38.4% in 2023 and average around 20% annually through 2028. Oil production is projected to reach 620,000 barrels per day at Payara field's full capacity, and exceed 1.2 million barrels per day by 2028. This increase has led to the development of spot markets and growing European interest in Guyanese crude oil.
In the next decade, Guyana is poised for major growth. The International Energy Agency predicts a more rapid increase in oil production than the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, expecting Guyana to reach 1.2 million barrels per day by 2028. OPEC forecasts a peak of about 1.9 million barrels per day by the late 2030s, marking Guyana as a significant contributor to non-OPEC supply growth. This contrasts with the expected medium-term increase and subsequent decline of US oil production in the 2030s.President Ali has strongly committed to continuous production, stressing the adherence to international law, ethics, and historical context.